The Demographic Challenge Facing Pakistan
Pakistan is facing a demographic crisis that threatens its economic, social, and environmental stability. According to global estimates, the world population has reached approximately 7.4 billion and is expected to grow to 11.2 billion by the end of the century if current trends continue. Asia, which houses nearly 60% of the world's population, is at the center of this growth. Within this region, Pakistan stands out as one of the most concerning cases due to its rapid population increase.
Currently, Pakistan’s population exceeds 250 million, making it the fifth most populous country globally. This figure has grown significantly over the past few decades. In 1998, the population was around 132.4 million, and by 2017, it had surged to 207.8 million—an increase of 57% in less than two decades. The annual growth rate of 3% is much higher than that of developed nations such as the United States, where the growth rate is about 1.7%. Between 1990 and 2019, only two countries—Pakistan and Nigeria—experienced a doubling of their populations, according to the United Nations Population Fund. In 2019 alone, 6.05 million births were recorded in Pakistan, meaning a new life is born every 5 to 6 seconds.
Factors Driving Population Growth
The rapid population growth in Pakistan is driven by several systemic issues. Widespread illiteracy, limited access to family planning services, and cultural and religious misconceptions about contraception play a major role. Poverty is also a key factor. In many low-income households, children are seen not just as blessings but as economic assets. They provide income during their youth and support during old age. A survey conducted among the working class in Lahore revealed that 60% of respondents believed having more children would increase household income and ensure future support. Additionally, 11% felt that preventing childbirth went against divine will, while 9% dismissed family planning as a foreign conspiracy. Sixteen percent admitted to little or no understanding of reproductive health, and many cited the lack of clinics, unavailability of birth control pills, and poor attitudes from healthcare workers as barriers to family planning.
Consequences of Unchecked Growth
The consequences of this unchecked population growth are far-reaching and alarming. Over 40 million Pakistanis live below the poverty line, and more than 70 million lack access to clean drinking water. In Punjab, the most populous province, 90 million people still face sanitation challenges. Housing shortages are severe, with nearly 70 million people living in overcrowded single-room accommodations. Water scarcity has become critical; per capita water availability dropped from 5,300 cubic meters in 1951 to just 860 cubic meters in 2017, placing Pakistan among the top three water-stressed countries globally. Urban infrastructure is also under immense pressure, with sewerage systems now serving ten times more households than they were designed for.
Healthcare outcomes, particularly for women and children, have deteriorated. Many mothers in rural areas undergo multiple pregnancies without access to adequate medical care or nutrition. Maternal mortality remains a significant issue, with millions of women worldwide lacking basic health facilities during childbirth. Education is another major concern, with one out of every three children aged five to sixteen not attending school. This lack of education contributes to high unemployment, crime, and social unrest, while child labor and early marriages are on the rise.
Environmental and Social Impacts
Environmental degradation is another serious consequence of population growth. Agricultural land is being converted into housing colonies, leading to food insecurity. Wheat, fruits, vegetables, and pulses are failing to meet national demand, and land prices have soared. Urban sprawl is altering weather patterns, contributing to climate change and natural disasters. Traffic congestion in cities is accelerating air pollution, leading to an increase in respiratory diseases, cancer, and other health conditions.
Unregistered births are also a growing problem. Many families, especially in low-income areas, do not register their children’s births, leaving millions outside the official system and vulnerable to discrimination and disadvantage.
Lessons from Other Countries
Other countries have successfully addressed similar challenges. Iran reduced its fertility rate through a culturally sensitive approach that included religious leaders, free contraceptives, and pre-marital counseling. Bangladesh achieved success by investing in grassroots health workers, education, and media campaigns tailored to its socio-religious context. Pakistan must adopt similar strategies. Family planning departments need revitalization, awareness campaigns should be integrated into school curricula, and community leaders must be engaged to shift public perception.
A Critical Juncture
Pakistan stands at a crossroads. Its population explosion is not just a statistic—it is a looming existential threat that undermines economic development, destabilizes public health systems, erodes environmental resources, and condemns millions to lives of poverty and hardship. Without urgent, sustained, and intelligent policy interventions, the nation risks becoming overwhelmed by its numbers. The time for rhetoric has passed; what Pakistan needs now is bold, informed, and collective action. The survival of future generations depends on the decisions made today.
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