Rising Demand for Animal-Sourced Calories and the Need for Sustainable Agriculture
As incomes grow in middle-income countries, so does the demand for animal-sourced calories. This shift has led to a significant increase in global food production, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable agricultural practices in the face of climate change concerns.
A recent joint report from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) outlines projections that global per capita calorie intake from livestock and fish will rise by 6 percent between 2025 and 2034. This surge is primarily driven by lower- and middle-income countries, where consumption is expected to increase by 24 percent—four times the global average.
To meet this growing demand, global fish production is anticipated to grow by 14 percent, especially in middle-income nations. This growth could create opportunities for increased agricultural support and humanitarian aid. Similarly, meat, dairy, and eggs are projected to rise by 17 percent, supported by a 7 percent expansion in the inventory of cattle, sheep, poultry, and pigs.
While these increases mean more food availability for many people, they also come with environmental costs. Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural activities are expected to rise by 6 percent over the next decade. However, the FAO estimates that emissions could be reduced by 7 percent if productivity improves by 15 percent through the adoption of emission-reduction technologies.
International trade plays a crucial role in feeding the world. By 2034, it is estimated that 22 percent of all calories consumed globally will cross through international trade, maintaining the same trend observed over the past decade. Managing or expanding this share will require multilateral cooperation and a rules-based trade system to ensure security and safeguard supply chains from disruptions.
"We have the tools to end hunger and boost global food security," said OECD Secretary General Mathais Cormann. "Well-coordinated policies are needed to keep global food markets open, while fostering long-term productivity improvements and sustainability in the agricultural sector."
FAO Director-General QU Dongyu echoed similar sentiments, emphasizing that while the outlook suggests improved nutrition for many lower-income nations, persistent food insecurity remains a challenge in some of the world's least developed countries. It was noted that low-income countries will continue to have a per capita daily intake of animal-based calories at just 143 kcal—less than half that of lower-middle-income countries and far below the FAO’s 300 kcal benchmark for a healthy and affordable diet.
The overall increase in agricultural productivity is expected to reduce global commodity prices, putting pressure on small-scale farmers. Larger operations are likely to benefit more from economies of scale, making it difficult for smallholders to compete unless they adapt to the evolving agricultural landscape.
Key Projections in the 2025–2034 Outlook
- Cereal production is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.1 percent, driven by a modest 0.9 percent increase in crop yields. The harvest area will only expand by 0.14 percent per year, which is less than half the rate of the previous decade.
- In high-income countries, per capita consumption of fats and sweeteners is projected to decline due to shifting dietary preferences, health concerns, and targeted food policies.
- By 2034, 40 percent of cereal crops (wheat, rice, corn, barley, etc.) will be consumed directly, while 33 percent will be used for animal feed, and the remaining 27 percent for biofuel and industrial uses.
- Demand for biofuel is expected to grow at an annual rate of 0.9 percent, led by Brazil, India, and Indonesia.
- India and Southeast Asia will account for 39 percent of global consumption growth by 2034, up from 32 percent in the last decade. In contrast, China's share is expected to decline from 32 percent to 13 percent.
The report concludes with a call to action, emphasizing that achieving global food security requires boosting agricultural efficiency in line with proper environmental measures. This approach is essential to reach global goals such as zero poverty and net-zero emissions.
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